The short summary of where AI is in its coding skills in mid-2026 is this: AI is like a junior developer. If you have use for junior developers, AI will help you; and if you don't, it won't.
If you have rote work to do, AI is great. But if you have large amounts of rote work, your codebase has a problem. If you are really programming close to the problem domain, the complexity of writing a prompt should be about the same as just writing the code.
You can therefore see use of AI as proportional to the amount of slop you have. No codebase is free from it, and changing circumstances can reclassify large areas of code to and from slop, so there will always be junior dev jobs. But having an abundance of them - never mind only having such - is not a sign of health.